QA

Migration & Survival Study

STY-014

Identity

NameMigration & Survival Study
IDSTY-014
COA reference10.19.1
ParentFisheries Evaluation Studies

Timing

Rolled-up spanJul 2026 – Oct 2031min start → max end across all tasks in this branch
Water yearsWY2026–WY2032

Funding plan

Planned$5.3M · WY2026–2032
Water yearOwnRolled upTotal
WY2026—$90k$90k
WY2027—$530k$530k
WY2028—$1.4M$1.4M
WY2029—$1.8M$1.8M
WY2030—$630k$630k
WY2031—$710k$710k
WY2032—$160k$160k
Total$0$5.3M$5.3M

Status roll-up

Rolled up from 2 sub-studiesBlocked
10 tasks9 on track0 at risk1 blocked
Constraints & notes

None recorded.

Focal Species

Winter-run Chinook salmonSpring-run Chinook salmonWhite sturgeon

Listed winter-run and spring-run Chinook salmon and white sturgeon out-migrants are the focal taxa. Salmonid smolts are tagged for reach-scale survival and routing; white sturgeon are tagged to characterize sub-adult/juvenile movement past the north Delta intakes.

Project Effect Links

Both near-field and far-field. Near-field: entrainment, impingement, and predation at the north Delta intakes (NDD) during construction and operations. Far-field: altered routing into the interior and southern Delta and reduced through-Delta survival driven by diversion-modified hydrodynamics. The study resolves the project effect at both scales so near-field intake performance and far-field routing can be attributed separately.

Objectives, Research Questions & Hypotheses

Establish a robust baseline of reach-specific survival and migratory routing for listed out-migrants before in-water construction, then track change through construction and operations. The study pairs a far-field survival/routing component with a near-field intake-behavior component so that any change in through-Delta survival can be attributed to its mechanism.

  1. What is the baseline reach-specific survival and routing of winter-run and spring-run Chinook salmon and white sturgeon out-migrants prior to in-water construction, and how does it change with project construction and operations?
  2. How does diversion at the north Delta intakes alter the probability of routing into the interior and southern Delta versus remaining on the mainstem Sacramento River corridor?
  3. What is fish survival and behavior in the near-field of the intakes — approach, residence, impingement, and predation — and how does it scale to reach-level survival?
  • H1: Through-reach survival of salmonid out-migrants declines measurably during active diversion relative to the preconstruction baseline.
  • H2: Increased diversion fraction increases the probability of routing off the mainstem corridor into the interior Delta.

Background

Builds on enhanced acoustic-tagging work, the Delta Juvenile Fish Monitoring Program, and prior JSATS survival studies in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. The study reach and tagging design are coordinated with the Predation Study (COA 10.19.2) and the Abundance and Distribution Study (COA 10.19.3) so the three share a common reach framework.

Methods

Study area. The Sacramento River from upstream release sites, through the legal Delta and the north Delta diversion reach, to Chipps Island at the western edge of the Delta.

Far-Field Survival and Routing

Methods / protocols
  • Telemetry System (JSATS array)
  • Salmonid Tagging and Release
  • Sturgeon Tagging and Release
  • Array Maintenance and Data Management
  • Survival Estimation
Performance metrics
  • Reach-specific survival
  • Route-entrainment probabilities (interior vs. mainstem)
  • Travel time through the diversion reach

Near-Field Behavior and Survival

Methods / protocols
  • Telemetry System (fine-scale)
  • Fish Tagging
  • Near-/Intermediate-Field Hydrodynamics
  • Movement Analysis
Performance metrics
  • Near-field survival at the intakes
  • Approach and residence behavior at the screens
  • Predation event rate in the near-field

Data Management

JSATS detections, tagging records, and hydrodynamic covariates are ingested to the DCP fisheries data system on a standing schedule; detection efficiencies and array uptime are tracked per season. Survival and routing models, code, and derived estimates are versioned and archived with each interim and final report.

Reporting Requirements

Draft Study Plan and Final Study Plan to CDFW; Draft/Interim Reports each field season; Draft Final Report and Final Report. Baseline reporting due 2030, prior to in-water construction.

Agency Review — CDFW6

3 open2 addressed1 resolved

Pinned to: Research Questions

  • C
    CDFWCDFW2026-02-10§ 3.5.1Rephrase research questionAddressed

    RQ1 should separate the baseline objective from the with-project objective so the preconstruction baseline can be approved and started independent of the construction-phase design.

    • GM
      Greenwood, Marin2026-02-24

      Split into a baseline clause and a with-project clause within RQ1; the baseline component can proceed on the 2027 field season while the construction-phase design is finalized.

Pinned to: Background

  • C
    CDFWCDFW2026-05-06§ 3.5.1Fix COA cross-referenceResolved

    Background references COA 10.20.2 where the Abundance and Distribution Study (10.19.2/10.19.3) is meant — please correct the coordinating-study cross-reference.

    • GM
      Greenwood, Marin2026-05-12

      Corrected to 10.19.2 (Predation) and 10.19.3 (Abundance and Distribution); 10.20.2 reference removed.

Pinned to: Methods

  • C
    CDFWCDFW2026-03-05§ 3.5.1Scope disputeAddressed

    The near-field and far-field components appear to double-count survival in the immediate intake reach. Define the spatial boundary between components so reach-level survival is not attributed twice.

    • GM
      Greenwood, Marin2026-03-21

      Added an explicit near-field/far-field boundary at the downstream extent of the intake array; near-field survival is reported as a conditional term and excluded from the far-field reach estimate.

  • C
    CDFWCDFW2026-04-02§ 3.5.1Model peer-review / documentationOpen

    The survival-estimation and routing models must be independently peer-reviewed before the 2030 baseline reporting, including documentation of detection-efficiency assumptions and model structure.

Pinned to: Performance Metrics

  • C
    CDFWCDFW2026-02-10§ 3.5.1Add / adjust metricOpen

    The far-field metric set must include reverse-flow frequency, magnitude, and duration as a routing covariate. Flow reversal at the junctions is a primary driver of interior-Delta entrainment and cannot be omitted.

Pinned to: Reporting Requirements

  • C
    CDFWCDFW2026-04-02§ 3.5.1Governance / approvalOpen

    CDFW approval of the Final Study Plan is required before any tagging or array deployment begins. Please state the approval gate explicitly in the reporting requirements.

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